November Surprise?

John Kerry may have botched a joke, but he hasn’t botched the election for Democrats. In response to the joke, news stations have been playing President Bush’s latest comments on Iraq, which happen to have been made this week in places such as Sugarland, Texas, where it’s likely that voters will reelect Tom Delay despite his resignation because they can’t remember the Republican write-in candidate’s name (which is hyphenated and difficult to spell). Bush’s remarks in these highly conservative districts are basically another version of his Stay the Course speeches without actually saying the words “stay the course.” These remarks are being shown all over the nation and will harm Republican candidates in moderate districts or districts that are against the War in Iraq. The latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll from earlier this week says that 61% of Americans can’t see a victory in Iraq, 54% don’t think it was worth it to go after Saddam Hussein, and the majority of Americans want a timetable to withdraw troops from Iraq. From the same poll, 36% of voters, the highest percentage, say that Iraq is the most important issue in the election. Americans are dissatisfied with the president, Congress, the War in Iraq, and with the direction the nation is headed. 52% of Americans polled by NBC/Wall Street Journal want Democrats to have control in Congress. Races are close in the Midwest and in typically Republican states, but in other areas the Democratic candidate has an overwhelming lead over their Republican opponent—Rick Santorum is polling around 30%.

The second most important issue to people in this election is jobs and the economy, followed by health care in third. In many states voters have the opportunity to raise the minimum wage in their state. Democrats are hopeful to drive out turnout with raising the minimum wage the way that Republicans were able to get out the vote with anti-gay marriage/civil union issues. Voters in the industrial area around Michigan and Ohio have been losing their jobs. The car industry is doing poorly. Manufacturing jobs are continuing to go elsewhere and there’s no end in sight. The federal minimum wage is not a living wage—which in 2001 was calculated to be around $11 an hour, minus health care costs. Health care and prescription costs continue to rise and the government isn’t doing anything about it.

Will this be an election that’s able to give Democrats control of Congress? Democrats need to pick up 6 more seats in the Senate and 15 more seats in the House to gain control. The polls are in favor of a Democratic Congress, but there are still a few more days left before the election. Karl Rove, the strategist behind President Bush’s two wins, is too calm and assured of a GOP victory for my taste. What does he have up his sleeve? What will be the November Surprise before Election Day? Will there be a November surprise before Election Day? Short of capturing bin Laden on Monday, is there anything that will stop the Democratic party?

I say the November surprise is that the Democrats will take back control of Congress.




Election predictions to come soon.